Always a Bridesmaid…

The final two nomination categories for our Forecast to analyze in detail are the Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress. One of those two is shaping up to be a blowout while the other could be the tightest race we’ll forecast.  In both cases, the numbers noted below reflect last week’s model update.  We’ll be updating the model again tomorrow, and after Sunday’s SAG Awards and PGA Awards.  All of this is going to be fluid through then.

Without further adieu – because we attended Cotillion, we know that it is ladies first.

Best Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway seems to be the only actress in the race this year.  Oh, wait, there are others? Oops.  How embarrassing!  Well, here goes nothing:

Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Hathaway has swept the awards shows to date with gracious acceptance speeches at The Golden Globes, the Critics Choice Awards, and The London Film Critics Circle Awards.  A first time nominee, Hathaway nonetheless seems to be belle of the ball, which she deserves considering the exceptionally sad character she played. The betting markets have her at 93% likelihood of winning – and those odds will be tough for any of her competition to overcome. We currently have her at 84.4%.

Sally Field, Lincoln
While this is her first Supporting Actress nomination, she is no stranger to the Academy Awards.  Field has twice won the Best Actress Oscar for Norma Rae (1979) and Places in the Heart (1984).  And while her ensemble (specifically Daniel Day-Lewis) and the film are front-runners for their categories this year, Field is definitely an underdog.  Betting markets have her at 2.6%.  We have Field slightly higher but still a distant second at 9.2%.

Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Like Field, Hunt has never been nominated for a Supporting Actress Oscar, but she has received recognition winning Best Actress for As Good As It Gets.  She was often praised leading into the nomination season, but her buzz has waned.  Betting markets currently put her at 1.5%.  We are slightly more generous at 3.0%

Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
Despite a strong performance and many nominations for Silver Linings Playbook, pundits were a bit surprised by Weaver’s nomination.  Weaver was previously nominated for Best Supporting Actress for Animal Kingdom in 2011.  Here the nomination may be her silver lining.  Betting markets have her at 0.7%.  We have her at 2.2%.

Amy Adams, The Master
Denver-native Amy Adams defines the “Bridesmaid Curse.” She is a three time nominee for Best Supporting Actress – Junebug (2005), Doubt (2008) and The Fighter (2010).  She was also snubbed for her tour de force in Muppets. Although she has recovered this year, she isn’t likely to see the podium.  Betting markets have her at 1.5%, close to our current 1.3% estimate.

Best Supporting Actor
In a category that is proving to be contentious, there are three actors with a real possibility to win.  We have seen betting markets movingly fluidly in this race, and we will be updating the model again tomorrow with brand new numbers.  Keep checking back later this week for new probabilities, as we expect a few things to shift over the next few days.

Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
This is a reprise role for Waltz, who was nominated and won Best Supporting Actor for Tarantino’s Inglourious Bastards in 2009/2010. He took home the Golden Globe earlier this month. Yet, the betting markets have him in 3rd at 16%.  We have Waltz in the lead at 33.7%.

Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Jones leads in the betting markets, but he has yet to take home a major award for this role.  The Screen Actor Guild Awards may be his first opportunity, and in fact the betting markets may be pricing that win into his odds (45.7%).  We currently have him at 24.5%.

Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Hoffman won the Critics Choice Award for Best Supporting Actor; he has twice been nominated for Best Supporting Actor before The Master (Charlie Wilson’s War -2007 and Doubt – 2008), and he has won Best Actor Oscar once prior (Capote – 2005). The betting markets are at 30.9% for Hoffman.  We have him in third (but only by a bit) at 23.8%.

Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
De Niro has previously been nominated and won the Best Supporting Actor (Godfather II – 1974), and he is one of the four from his cast in Silver Lining Playbook nominated for the respective roles. But in this strong category this year he is the underdog. Betting markets have him at 6%, and we are currently showing him at 12.4%.

Alan Arkin, Argo
Arkin has previously been nominated (The Russians are Coming the Russians are Coming – 1966 and The Heart is a Lonely Hunter – 1969) and won (Little Miss Sunshine – 2006). But, he may have to produce his own fake ceremony in order to walk away the winner.  He has yet to claim a major award for this role and the betting markets are discounting his chances heavily at 2.6%.  Similarly, we have him around 5.5%.

Both Best Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress models have similar inputs, including betting market behavior, previous awards and wins, and award accolades for their specific nomination this year.  We expect to have movement this week to reflect changes in the betting markets. And following SAG and PGA on this Sunday, a new model will be released.  We are excited to see how these races continue to play out.  Stay tuned for updates on this front.