TGIF – no, not thank goodness it is Friday; Thank Goodness It is FINAL. Today is our final forecast for Sunday’s Academy Awards.  And, don’t worry. We are going to keep blogging after the Oscars.  Our topics will expand to cover some other unique and cool topics. In fact, if you have a topic, that you’d like us to cover, email michael@farsitegroup.com or conor@farsitegroup.com.

First things first – here are our final predictions.

We’ll give you some additional commentary throughout the day. And, keep an eye on our Twitter (@farsiteforecast) and Facebook (www.facebook.com/farsiteforecast) for some fun news and nuggets throughout the weekend.

As they say in the gambler, you gotta know when to hold ‘em and know when to fold ‘em.  Oscar betting is a little easier with the help of data science.  For those of you looking to place real money on the Oscars – here are what the prop betting markets are saying going into Oscar Sunday.

And, our lawyers told us to make sure and say that we in no way shape or form encourage gambling of any sort…gotta know when to listen to the suits too!… Read the rest

We are eager to update the models tomorrow! Stay tuned. In the meantime, we have to get ready for Michael Gold’s LA Trip.

In the meantime, check out this 2013 Oscar montage:

… Read the rest

As Hollywood prepares for the Oscars (and if you live in the area, you know that Hollywood Blvd is already closed for preparations), the Writers Guild of America celebrated its annual awards last night.  This was the last industry event which informs the Oscar Forecast. And, Argo continued dominating the guild awards, winning Best Adapted Screenplay.  In the Best Original Screenplay category, Zero Dark Thirty bested the competition.  It seems that writers are a bunch of political animals. Within the model, this signal is not as heavily weighted as other guild award winners. But, it is yet another data point which indicates that we could be on our way to an Argo victory on Sunday.

Beyond Best Picture, WGA does not impact any of the other individual nominee categories we have covered. But, the betting markets have continued to move since we last updated you.  For Best Director, Spielberg has remained the consistent leader. Betting markets have kept him in the mid-70s the last few weeks (75.9% today).  Since his biggest competition wasn’t even nominated for the award, he seems the safe bet to take home the Oscar.

Like Best Director, the Best Actor race has remained fairly unchanged week … Read the rest