Farsite Forecast

NFL Draft: How Good are First Round Picks Really?

Ryan McClarren — Fri, 26 Apr 2013 02:41:06 +0000

What fun would draft week be without looking at some data? In that spirit we decided to look how draft position affects the willingness of a team to play a given player. In other words, does the sunk cost of the draft pick encourage a team to give a player more playing time than the player’s skill might otherwise call for? We looked at data for running backs and quarterbacks. Also, for quarterbacks we looked at when the playing time was occurring: was it during mop up time in a blowout or was it when the outcome was still in question.

Running Backs
Are running backs drafted higher more likely to “get a shot” than players drafted lower?

The running backs selected in the first half of the first round definitely get a better chance at playing time. There is an oscillation when comparing the first half of a round to the second half of a round. This is probably a result of the fact that teams picking in the second half of the draft probably need to give a rookie running back playing time.

The distributions of rushes demonstrate this even better. Running backs selected in the first half … Read the rest

and The Oscar® Goes to…

admin — Mon, 25 Feb 2013 15:56:12 +0000

We have our Winners! It has been a fantastic few months since we launched the Farsite Forecast with our inaugural Oscar Forecast. Below is a summary of the pundits and data science predictions. Farsite Forecast was five for six, including correctly projecting Christoph Waltz for Best Supporting Actor. Our one miss was the Best Director award, where we had Spielberg instead of winner Ang Lee. We will evaluate the model and provide some additional color commentary on that projection later in the day. Thanks for following us over the last few months. But, don’t stop! We’ll continue to post on a variety of fun topics, including the movies, music, and perhaps even some issues related to pop culture and politics… … Read the rest

The Final Countdown

Conor Gaughan — Fri, 22 Feb 2013 15:15:36 +0000

TGIF – no, not thank goodness it is Friday; Thank Goodness It is FINAL. Today is our final forecast for Sunday’s Academy Awards. And, don’t worry. We are going to keep blogging after the Oscars. Our topics will expand to cover some other unique and cool topics. In fact, if you have a topic, that you’d like us to cover, email michael@farsitegroup.com or conor@farsitegroup.com.

First things first – here are our final predictions.

We’ll give you some additional commentary throughout the day. And, keep an eye on our Twitter (@farsiteforecast) and Facebook (www.facebook.com/farsiteforecast) for some fun news and nuggets throughout the weekend.… Read the rest

My Money Is On…

Conor Gaughan — Thu, 21 Feb 2013 14:51:02 +0000

As they say in the gambler, you gotta know when to hold ‘em and know when to fold ‘em. Oscar betting is a little easier with the help of data science. For those of you looking to place real money on the Oscars – here are what the prop betting markets are saying going into Oscar Sunday.

And, our lawyers told us to make sure and say that we in no way shape or form encourage gambling of any sort…gotta know when to listen to the suits too!… Read the rest

T-Minus

Conor Gaughan — Thu, 21 Feb 2013 00:04:52 +0000

We are eager to update the models tomorrow! Stay tuned. In the meantime, we have to get ready for Michael Gold’s LA Trip.

In the meantime, check out this 2013 Oscar montage:

… Read the rest

Vanity Fair – Polls and Parties

Ryan McClarren — Tue, 19 Feb 2013 21:22:35 +0000

Recently, while reading Vanity Fair’s account of the wisdom of crowds and how that wisdom can be mined to predict the Oscars, I found myself nodding along with the piece. Yes, I am a firm believer that crowdsourcing can be a great approach to solve thorny problems. Like Vanity Fair, I am often skeptical of the “expert”. Relying on expert judgment, though sometimes necessary, often leads one to rely on ill-formed opinion—witness the forecasts of the Etruscan Haruspex if you’d like a particularly gut-wrenching image of pre-classical expert opinion. Of late, crowd-sourced wisdom is piling up front page stories of success. The famous Netflix Prize found a suggestion algorithm better than Netflix’s own solution, and the 2008 and 2012 election forecasting case studies again illustrate the power of crowdsourcing. We’ve at least sampled the Kool-Aid too: in our own Oscar Forecasting model, we use data obtained from crowdsourcing (notably Intrade futures) for a part of our forecast. Just having a crowd, however, is not a silver bullet for a great solution.

Essential to analyzing the success and value of crowd-sourcing is a firm grasp of one thing – the crowd. The question is – who comprises the crowd. … Read the rest

WGA Goes Political, and The Final Week Countdown

Conor Gaughan — Mon, 18 Feb 2013 16:53:59 +0000

As Hollywood prepares for the Oscars (and if you live in the area, you know that Hollywood Blvd is already closed for preparations), the Writers Guild of America celebrated its annual awards last night. This was the last industry event which informs the Oscar Forecast. And, Argo continued dominating the guild awards, winning Best Adapted Screenplay. In the Best Original Screenplay category, Zero Dark Thirty bested the competition. It seems that writers are a bunch of political animals. Within the model, this signal is not as heavily weighted as other guild award winners. But, it is yet another data point which indicates that we could be on our way to an Argo victory on Sunday.

Beyond Best Picture, WGA does not impact any of the other individual nominee categories we have covered. But, the betting markets have continued to move since we last updated you. For Best Director, Spielberg has remained the consistent leader. Betting markets have kept him in the mid-70s the last few weeks (75.9% today). Since his biggest competition wasn’t even nominated for the award, he seems the safe bet to take home the Oscar.

Like Best Director, the Best Actor race has remained fairly unchanged week … Read the rest

One Week Left…WGA Preview

Conor Gaughan — Fri, 15 Feb 2013 22:45:32 +0000

This weekend is one of our final model signals. The WGA Awards are this weekend, and there is a relationship between the winners of the WGA and both the Oscars for Best Original Screenplay, Best Adapted Screenplay. But, it turns out that the Oscar for Best Picture is also related to WGA Awards.

This year’s nominees for Original Screenplay from WGA include Flight, Looper, The Master, Moonrise Kingdom and Zero Dark Thirty. Out of those, Looper and The Master were not nominated for an Oscar; Amour and Django Unchained were.

WGA Best Adapted Screenplay include Argo, Life of Pi, Lincoln, The Perks of Being a Wallflower, and Silver Linings Playbook. Out of those, The Perks of Being a Wallflower, in favor of Beasts of Southern Wild.

Four of the Best Picture nominees were not WGA nominees: Amour, Beasts of Southern Wild, Django Unchained, and Les Miserables. And, only Les Miserables was left off both the WGA and Oscar writing awards list. I’m sure Victor Hugo, himself, is tres miserables (we’ve been waiting all awards season to make that joke).

Check back on Monday, when we provide our final model update, to reflect the WGA impact. And, have a happy and … Read the rest

Traffic Has Been Bad

Conor Gaughan — Thu, 14 Feb 2013 21:58:53 +0000

Hey all,

Sorry for the delay in posting the last two days. As you know, Hollywood Blvd. has been a nightmare. We’ve been stuck in traffic for days. This is the perfect time for SNL’s “The Californians”

Check out this video

We’ll be back tomorrow with a quick preview of WGA’s weekend awards – the last before the Oscars.… Read the rest

The Diva-Off

Conor Gaughan — Tue, 12 Feb 2013 19:45:21 +0000

Two weeks ago we used social listening tools to compare the growing buzz around Argo relative to Best Picture nemesis Lincoln. Perhaps it was last week’s episode of Glee, or perhaps it was the Perez Hilton story about the Chastain vs. Lawrence feud, but we decided to use our social listening analysis to compare the two leading ladies for Best Actress.

As Google Trends indicate, Lawrence and “SLP” generally seem to be more buzzed about than Chastain and “ZDT”, despite the political controversy and associated buzz that Zero Dark Thirty has experienced this awards season. One of the biggest spikes in buzz was the day after Lawrence’s SNL performance, where she trashed her Oscar competition. Both ladies are their respective movies best shot for Oscar night, but Lawrence has maintained a solid lead over Chastain from the onset.… Read the rest