How The Oscar Is Won

Tomorrow we’ll release our Oscar® Forecast Model for the 85th Annual Academy Awards®. But before we do that, we thought we’d give you a little tease with a data graphic. This graphic illustrates how our model will predict winners using more than 40 years of film industry and Academy Awards data, along with present and ongoing structured and unstructured data.

The process of building the model began with a data storm – a universe of possible inputs and potential nominees. The model evolves using a wide array of variables that capture the buzz around awards season. For example, various guilds announce their nominees in advance of the Oscar nominations. Tomorrow, the announcement of the Oscar nominations dampens the noise, and marks a major milestone in our forecasting effort.Come Nomination Day, the model will reveal the front-runners. Some variables will remain static, like the total nominations across categories for a film; while others will constantly evolve, like InTrade market performance. And, every week, the results of certain industry awards, particularly those of the guilds, will impact the odds of who will win. These signals, accumulated throughout the awards season, will inform and evolve the probability of winning for any given nominee on a daily basis, until Awards night – when the winners are announced!Starting Friday, we’ll analyze each race independently and we’ll provide more color commentary on the inputs and signals most important to each race – Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress. And we will know a lot more tomorrow, when the Academy announces the nominees.