We are eager to update the models tomorrow! Stay tuned. In the meantime, we have to get ready for Michael Gold’s LA Trip.

In the meantime, check out this 2013 Oscar montage:

Recently, while reading Vanity Fair’s account  of the wisdom of crowds and how that wisdom can be mined to predict the Oscars, I found myself nodding along with the piece.  Yes, I am a firm believer that crowdsourcing can be a great approach to solve thorny problems. Like Vanity Fair, I am often skeptical of the “expert”. Relying on expert judgment, though sometimes necessary, often leads one to rely on ill-formed opinion—witness the forecasts of the Etruscan Haruspex if you’d like a particularly gut-wrenching image of pre-classical expert opinion. Of late, crowd-sourced wisdom is piling up front page stories of success. The famous Netflix Prize found a suggestion algorithm better than Netflix’s own solution, and the 2008  and 2012 election forecasting case studies again illustrate the power of crowdsourcing.  We’ve at least sampled the Kool-Aid too: in our own Oscar Forecasting model, we use data obtained from crowdsourcing (notably Intrade futures) for a part of our forecast. Just having a crowd, however, is not a silver bullet for a great solution.

Essential to analyzing the success and value of crowd-sourcing is a firm grasp of one thing – the crowd.  The question is – who comprises the crowd. … Read the rest

As Hollywood prepares for the Oscars (and if you live in the area, you know that Hollywood Blvd is already closed for preparations), the Writers Guild of America celebrated its annual awards last night.  This was the last industry event which informs the Oscar Forecast. And, Argo continued dominating the guild awards, winning Best Adapted Screenplay.  In the Best Original Screenplay category, Zero Dark Thirty bested the competition.  It seems that writers are a bunch of political animals. Within the model, this signal is not as heavily weighted as other guild award winners. But, it is yet another data point which indicates that we could be on our way to an Argo victory on Sunday.

Beyond Best Picture, WGA does not impact any of the other individual nominee categories we have covered. But, the betting markets have continued to move since we last updated you.  For Best Director, Spielberg has remained the consistent leader. Betting markets have kept him in the mid-70s the last few weeks (75.9% today).  Since his biggest competition wasn’t even nominated for the award, he seems the safe bet to take home the Oscar.

Like Best Director, the Best Actor race has remained fairly unchanged week … Read the rest

This weekend is one of our final model signals.  The WGA Awards are this weekend, and there is a relationship between the winners of the WGA and both the Oscars for Best Original Screenplay, Best Adapted Screenplay.  But, it turns out that the Oscar for Best Picture is also related to WGA Awards.

This year’s nominees for Original Screenplay from WGA include Flight, Looper, The Master, Moonrise Kingdom and Zero Dark Thirty. Out of those, Looper and The Master were not nominated for an Oscar; Amour and Django Unchained were.

WGA Best Adapted Screenplay include Argo, Life of Pi, Lincoln, The Perks of Being a Wallflower, and Silver Linings Playbook.  Out of those, The Perks of Being a Wallflower, in favor of Beasts of Southern Wild.

Four of the Best Picture nominees were not WGA nominees: Amour, Beasts of Southern Wild, Django Unchained, and Les Miserables. And, only Les Miserables was left off both the WGA and Oscar writing awards list.  I’m sure Victor Hugo, himself, is tres miserables (we’ve been waiting all awards season to make that joke).

Check back on Monday, when we provide our final model update, to reflect the WGA impact.  And, have a happy and … Read the rest