At Farsite, we created a statistical model that keeps two important things in mind:
1) 40 years of Oscars history can give us winner predictions based on trends
2) Intangibles, like momentum, popular opinion and controversy can buck these same past trends
Maybe most importantly, we know that there are nearly 6,000 voting members of the Academy and that many of them vote for other awards too. In several cases, the same actors and producers who vote in the Screen Actors Guild and Producers Guild awards will also cast Oscar ballots at the end of the awards season. Statistically, we know that tracking the other awards will hone our predictions this week before the Oscars. And that’s right now!
Here are the specific types of data that populate our statistical models:
- Guild Award winners: Producers Guild, Screen Actors Guild, Writers Guild and Directors Guild
- Other awards: Critic’s Choice Awards and the Golden Globes
- Prediction Markets and Betting Lines
- Previous Nominations and award histories for each of the nominees
See this data take action in our top six races: read more
Lupita Nyog’o, from our Best Picture pick, 12 Years a Slave, has gained ground in recent weeks, with wins at the Critic’s Choice and Screen Actors Guild, where her acceptance speeches were “emotional and eloquent—making it hard not to root for her,” according to Entertainment Weekly. We give Nyog’o an 85% chance of winning, our second highest win margin behind Jared Leto.
FarsiteForecast for Best Supporting Actress
Jared Leto holds our highest predicted winning margin, with an 86% chance of victory for his work in Dallas Buyers Club. Leto, who’s been away from the acting world to focus on music with his band 30 Seconds to Mars, is back in force with Best Supporting Actor wins at the Golden Globes, Critic’s Choice and Screen Actors Guild—considered the biggest win predictor for the Oscar.
FarsiteForecast for Best Supporting Actor
Even among Oscar powerhouses like Meryl Streep and Judi Dench, Cate Blanchett is poised to take home the golden guy for Best Actress. Blanchett has 5 previous Oscar nominations (including 1 win) and a 59% chance of winning this year due to Best Actress wins in the Golden Globes, Critic’s Choice awards and the Screen Actors Guild—the top predictor of Oscar success.
FarsiteForecast for Best Actress
Matthew McConaughey is ahead of his fellow nominees for his work in Dallas Buyers Club with an 82% chance of taking home the statue. McConaughey will roll into the Oscars with Best Actor awards from the Golden Globes, Critic’s Choice and the Screen Actors Guild—the number one predictor for winning the Best Actor Oscar.
FarsiteForecast for Best Actor
With his very first Oscar nomination, Alfonso Cuaron is our leader for Best Director. His wins at the Directors Guild Awards—the biggest predictor for winning Best Director—along with his Best Director statue from the Golden Globes and Critic’s Choice awards gives Cuaron a 72% chance of getting the Oscar.
FarsiteForecast for Best Director
In one of the closest races we can remember, Gravity and 12 Years a Slave are neck and neck. Initial Farsite data had Gravity with a slight edge, but our statistical model—which balances model data with betting odds—gave us a fuller picture. We’ve got 12 Years a Slave at a 55% chance of winning with Gravity at 38%.
How will this year’s first-ever Best Picture tie at the Producers Guild Awards affect the race between Gravity and 12 Years a Slave?
FarsiteForecast for Best Picture
What fun would draft week be without looking at some data? In that spirit we decided to look how draft position affects the willingness of a team to play a given player. In other words, does the sunk cost of the draft pick encourage a team to give a player more playing time than the player’s skill might otherwise call for? We looked at data for running backs and quarterbacks. Also, for quarterbacks we looked at when the playing time was occurring: was it during mop up time in a blowout or was it when the outcome was still in question.
Are running backs drafted higher more likely to “get a shot” than players drafted lower?
Median Rushes in Season
|Round 1, First Half||215.5||96.51
|Round 1, Second Half||114.5||100.04
|Round 2, First Half||125.5||98.49
|Round 2, Second Half||71||79.24
|Round 3, First Half||122||72.11
|Round 3, Second Half||62||57.55
|Round 4 and Above||14||52.17
The running backs selected in the first half of the first round definitely get a better chance at playing time. There is an oscillation when read more