Tag Archives: academy awards

Leadership Transition: Argo Overtakes Lincoln…for Now

As we mentioned in our previous post on PGA and SAG, there may be some shifting momentum in the Best Picture race.  In fact, in the last few days, betting markets have begun to favor Argo for Best Picture over Lincoln.  Interestingly, the markets have been fluctuating significantly.  Following its win at PGA, Argo was up but still below Lincoln. Following SAG on Sunday, Argo skyrocketed.  But by Monday morning, Argo was back down to levels below Lincoln, near where it was post-PGA and pre-SAG.  In the last 24 hours, however, Argo has again begun to gain.

This indicates that the underlying dynamics of this race remain in flux. Sentiment continues to change and evolve.  And, we’ll have yet another data-point come this weekend’s Directors Guild of America (“DGA”) Awards.  Should Affleck win over Spielberg, we would expect the Argo momentum in the read more

PGA and SAG Cause Some Drama

We are marching towards February 24th. And this weekend marked a critical juncture: the Producers Guild of America Awards and the SAG AFTRA Awards were each held this weekend, providing us important new data points for the model.  And, it was some unexpected and exciting news.

On Saturday night, at the Producers Guild of America (“PGA”) Awards, Argo took home the top award. As we have mentioned before, PGA is one of the best indicators of the likely winner of the Oscar for Best Picture. But, as we have mentioned before, it is rare that a film wins Best Picture when the Director is not also nominated for Best Director.  Recall, Argo’s Director (Ben Affleck) was not nominated for Best Director.  Thus, we have a few signals that seem to conflict. This type of situation happens all the time in business planning, so we’re thankful that the PGA is giving read more

Which Leading Lady Will Win?

After reading the press yesterday, our vote for Best Actress would have to be for Lennay Kekua who stars in “The Manti Te’o Story”.  Alas she is not in the running – probably because she does not exist.  Instead, we are left with a woman playing slightly unstable and a woman who is a spook with the CIA.  Wait…that sounds a lot like whoever this Lennay Kekua woman actually may be.  The Best Actress race, like the Best Actor race, is largely down to two: Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica Chastain.  Both of these young beauties are accomplished actors.  Even beyond these two frontrunners, this category is rich with interesting nominees and stories, including the youngest and oldest nominees in Best Actress category in Oscar history.

Leading Ladies – Nominee Analysis:
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
It was only two years ago that read more

The Good, The Bad and The Ugly…The Best Director Nominees

When my little sister was growing up, she used to protest anything she didn’t want to do with the phrase, “You’re not the boss of me!”  I imagine that certain actors and actresses, and perhaps even others on the film crews for these Oscar nominees have the same attitude. And yet, there must be a captain to steer the ship.  With so many tried and true contenders in the race, it promises to be a good contest to watch.  In fact, previous nominations and wins is a strong signal for predicting future wins in the Best Director category.  Given that, along with other critical signals we discuss below, Spielberg is the current leader in the race.  Below we break down the candidates and the key factors influencing the model.

Nominee Review
The Legend: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
The man, the myth and the read more

What Is Data Science Anyway?

Data Science, Big Data, Predictive Analytics, Advanced Analytics…what exactly does it all mean?  What if anything does it have to do with the Academy Awards? The Awards are given for art, not science, but the awarding of the statuettes is a process undertaken by a panel of around 5,000 humans that can be understood, and dare we say forecast, using data science.

All of those fancy terms refer to the application of rigorous statistical methods, mathematical analysis, and “machine learning” to better analyze information.  And ultimately, the goal is to use that analysis for better decision-making.
Technology – computing power, data transmission, the internet, the ubiquity of computers, social networking, communications and mobile devices – all of these incredible innovations have exponentially read more

What To Expect When You’re Expecting…Our Model That Is

First, let’s begin with a simple declaration that the Academy Awards are predictable. We don’t mean that to be pejorative.  But, we’ve done analysis and we’ve read analysis.  The Oscars have a defined set of nominees in any given category. There are quite a few variables, with historic results to test against.  It’s a data science dream!  And, better than elections, it is annual!  We are in data heaven.

Before we introduce you to the official Farsite model, there are quite a few interesting preliminary data points we would highlight to set expectations.  First – meet your voters. Just like the election, we have some good information about who comprises the voting block of the Academy.  There are 5,765 voting members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences; read more

Your Calendar of Events

Oscar Nominations: 1/10/2013
This is the morning when the nominees are announced.  In a relic of New York-Centrism, the Press Conference is held at 8AM Eastern.  This, despite the fact that Hollywood is the hub of the Oscars, and it’s an UNGODLY 5AM.  Don’t fret, we’ll live blog the nominations. This is the second most important day of the Oscar Season!

Critics Choice Awards: 1/10/2013
Everyone loves a critic, and we are no exception.  The Critics Choice Awards will give us a lot to talk about, as they provide a data point day one of the official Oscar Race.

Golden Globes: 1/13/2013
The Hollywood Foreign Press Association hosts what many consider the best fete of Awards season.  The Golden Globes are infamous as the one party where everyone is drunk half way through read more

Farsite Takes to the Red Carpet with the 2013 Oscar Forecast

Data science, one of the top stories of the 2012 election, is a fast growing field.  We are the geeks who love numbers and dream in 1s and 0s.  In fact, we enjoy data so much that we built a company that helps customers harness the power of data to make better business decisions.   And, we decided this year to have a little fun with the numbers; We are pleased to announce the launch our 2013 Oscar Forecast.

We have all participated in an office Oscar pool, or wagered with our friends, as we watched the Academy Awards.  But, unlike the elections, the Oscars don’t get the star data treatment they deserve.  Sure, there are pundits at the LA Times, Variety, The Hollywood Reporter and Deadline.com.  In a world rich with data (yes, Hollywood is data rich!), Farsite is excited to bring Big Data to the big screen, and join those pundits in read more