As we mentioned in our previous post on PGA and SAG, there may be some shifting momentum in the Best Picture race. In fact, in the last few days, betting markets have begun to favor Argo for Best Picture over Lincoln. Interestingly, the markets have been fluctuating significantly. Following its win at PGA, Argo was up but still below Lincoln. Following SAG on Sunday, Argo skyrocketed. But by Monday morning, Argo was back down to levels below Lincoln, near where it was post-PGA and pre-SAG. In the last 24 hours, however, Argo has again begun to gain.
This indicates that the underlying dynamics of this race remain in flux. Sentiment continues to change and evolve. And, we’ll have yet another data-point come this weekend’s Directors Guild of America (“DGA”) Awards. Should Affleck win over Spielberg, we would expect the Argo momentum in the betting markets to continue. Fundamentally, if Affleck wins DGA, many pundits will question how he was passed over for an Oscar nomination for Best Director in the first place. Should Spielberg take home the DGA Award, he will be the clear front runner for the Oscar for Best Director, and his win may stymie … Read the rest
We are marching towards February 24th. And this weekend marked a critical juncture: the Producers Guild of America Awards and the SAG AFTRA Awards were each held this weekend, providing us important new data points for the model. And, it was some unexpected and exciting news.
On Saturday night, at the Producers Guild of America (“PGA”) Awards, Argo took home the top award. As we have mentioned before, PGA is one of the best indicators of the likely winner of the Oscar for Best Picture. But, as we have mentioned before, it is rare that a film wins Best Picture when the Director is not also nominated for Best Director. Recall, Argo’s Director (Ben Affleck) was not nominated for Best Director. Thus, we have a few signals that seem to conflict. This type of situation happens all the time in business planning, so we’re thankful that the PGA is giving us a chance to evaluate the situation.
As we determine how to weight various data sets and signals that impact our predictive forecasting model, we will walk through some of the factors that help us understand the conflict between Argo’s PGA win and the lack of best … Read the rest
After reading the press yesterday, our vote for Best Actress would have to be for Lennay Kekua who stars in “The Manti Te’o Story”. Alas she is not in the running – probably because she does not exist. Instead, we are left with a woman playing slightly unstable and a woman who is a spook with the CIA. Wait…that sounds a lot like whoever this Lennay Kekua woman actually may be. The Best Actress race, like the Best Actor race, is largely down to two: Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica Chastain. Both of these young beauties are accomplished actors. Even beyond these two frontrunners, this category is rich with interesting nominees and stories, including the youngest and oldest nominees in Best Actress category in Oscar history.
Leading Ladies – Nominee Analysis:
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
It was only two years ago that Jennifer Lawrence burst onto the scene in Winter’s Bone. The role earned her critical acclaim, including an Oscar nomination for Best Actress. She was only 20, and the second youngest nominee in the category in history. Now at 22, she is the leading contender for the Oscar. Intrade has Lawrence at 60.6%. She took home the Golden … Read the rest
When my little sister was growing up, she used to protest anything she didn’t want to do with the phrase, “You’re not the boss of me!” I imagine that certain actors and actresses, and perhaps even others on the film crews for these Oscar nominees have the same attitude. And yet, there must be a captain to steer the ship. With so many tried and true contenders in the race, it promises to be a good contest to watch. In fact, previous nominations and wins is a strong signal for predicting future wins in the Best Director category. Given that, along with other critical signals we discuss below, Spielberg is the current leader in the race. Below we break down the candidates and the key factors influencing the model.
The Legend: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
The man, the myth and the legend. Spielberg helped inspire the term blockbuster, setting and breaking the Box Office record for a film’s opening three times. As for the Oscars – Spielberg has previously won twice, and he has 7 nominations to his credit. His first nomination came in 1977, 35 years ago. But, he hasn’t been ubiquitous, winning year in and year out. … Read the rest