Tag Archives: best picture

Leadership Transition: Argo Overtakes Lincoln…for Now

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As we mentioned in our previous post on PGA and SAG, there may be some shifting momentum in the Best Picture race.  In fact, in the last few days, betting markets have begun to favor Argo for Best Picture over Lincoln.  Interestingly, the markets have been fluctuating significantly.  Following its win at PGA, Argo was up but still below Lincoln. Following SAG on Sunday, Argo skyrocketed.  But by Monday morning, Argo was back down to levels below Lincoln, near where it was post-PGA and pre-SAG.  In the last 24 hours, however, Argo has again begun to gain.

This indicates that the underlying dynamics of this race remain in flux. Sentiment continues to change and evolve.  And, we’ll have yet another data-point come this weekend’s Directors Guild of America (“DGA”) Awards.  Should Affleck win over Spielberg, we would expect the Argo momentum in the betting markets to continue. Fundamentally, if Affleck wins DGA, many pundits will question how he was passed over for an Oscar nomination for Best Director in the first place.  Should Spielberg take home the DGA Award, he will be the clear front runner for the Oscar for Best Director, and his win may stymie … Read the rest

Rotten Tomatoes

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Rotten Tomatoes is one of the most popular sites that reviews movies. Beyond the Box Office, this platform provides one of the only quantitative measurement tools for how well-received a movie is by both audience and critics. But does the audience, or even the critic, opinion mean anything for the Oscars?

Background
Rotten Tomatoes has two parallel ratings systems: one critic driven and one audience driven. The critics contribute to the Critics Score, called the Tomatometer®; the user-driven score is called, inventively, the Audience Score. Each is a percentage of the reviewers that had a positive rating of the movie. For the Audience Score, a positive review is one with 3.5 stars or greater; for the critics, a positive review is a thumbs up (or equivalent).

There are also other meta-scores that Rotten Tomatoes provides: the Critics Rating and the Audience Rating. These measure the aggregate scores of critics and the unwashed masses alike. The Critics Rating has three levels: Certified Fresh, Fresh, and Rotten. According to the RT website the Certified Fresh rating is “Reserved for the best-reviewed films, the Certified Fresh accolade constitutes a seal of approval, synonymous with quality.” Quantitatively, these films have consistent Critics Scores above … Read the rest

Does Oscar® Ski?

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Who doesn’t love a good party? And everyone in Hollywood knows (and everyone else that watches Entourage knows) that outside of Oscar Sunday, the best parties are in and around the sleepy little ski town of Park City, Utah.  Call it “Hollywood in the Slopes.” I am fairly convinced that more wine, beer and booze is consumed this single week in Park City than the entire other 51 weeks of the year in all of Utah – combined. I’m fairly certain that much of that is consumed a one particular house in The Colony, a luxe neighborhood in Park City’s Canyons resort – you know who you are! There are an estimated 40,000 people that converge on Robert Redford’s resort community, shuttling between screenings, meetings, drinks, parties, and more drinks.

For those newbies to the film world, Sundance is a film festival, just like Cannes in France, Tribecca in New York, or Toronto International in Tor…you get the drift. Festivals are intended to be a marketplace where filmmakers sell their films to buyers who purchase the right to distribute those films in certain specified territories. Some producers are in town to try and “sell” their movies before they are … Read the rest

Revised Model, With A Golden Tint

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It is almost as easy to predict the Oscars as it is to predict what the pundits will say.  ”The HFPA favors musicals” will be their response to the wins of Anne Hathaway, Hugh Jackman and Les Miserables for Best Picture – Musical. “The HFPA adores Tarantino” will justify Christoph Waltz and Django Unchained for Best Screenplay.  The morning of the Globes, Steve Pond’s preview in Wrap.com was titled “Credibility Is Overrated”, and Deadline hosted a funny and biting, “Live Snarking”. Regardless, the Globes are a data point worthy of consideration, not totally irrelevant noise. There are signals in this event, particularly because it is so early in the season. Keep in mind The Globes impact is two-fold: first, it could have some predictive correlation to the Oscar race itself, albeit small; second, it may drive changes in the betting markets.  Intrade has moved materially in the last three days, both on the results of Critics Choice Awards and the Golden Globes. And, thus, we attempt to answer Hollywood’s question: “Do the Globes help a nominee’s Oscar chances?”

So, what exactly was the impact of last night’s Golden Globes on the model?  We had a few notable shocks, … Read the rest