But how, exactly, does the Farsite prediction model work?

At Farsite, we created a statistical model that keeps two important things in mind:

1) 40 years of Oscars history can give us winner predictions based on trends
2) Intangibles, like momentum, popular opinion and controversy can buck these same past trends

Maybe most importantly, we know that there are nearly 6,000 voting members of the Academy and that many of them vote for other awards too. In several cases, the same actors and producers who vote in the Screen Actors Guild and Producers Guild awards will also cast Oscar ballots at the end of the awards season. Statistically, we know that tracking the other awards will hone our predictions this week before the Oscars. And that’s right now!

    Here are the specific types of data that populate our statistical models:

  • Guild Award winners: Producers Guild, Screen Actors Guild, Writers Guild and Directors Guild
  • Other awards: Critic’s Choice Awards and the Golden Globes
  • Prediction Markets and Betting Lines
  • Previous Nominations and award histories for each of the nominees

See this data take action in our top six races: