As Hollywood prepares for the Oscars (and if you live in the area, you know that Hollywood Blvd is already closed for preparations), the Writers Guild of America celebrated its annual awards last night. This was the last industry event which informs the Oscar Forecast. And, Argo continued dominating the guild awards, winning Best Adapted Screenplay. In the Best Original Screenplay category, Zero Dark Thirty bested the competition. It seems that writers are a bunch of political animals. Within the model, this signal is not as heavily weighted as other guild award winners. But, it is yet another data point which indicates that we could be on our way to an Argo victory on Sunday.
Beyond Best Picture, WGA does not impact any of the other individual nominee categories we have covered. But, the betting markets have continued to move since we last updated you. For Best Director, Spielberg has remained the consistent leader. Betting markets have kept him in the mid-70s the last few weeks (75.9% today). Since his biggest competition wasn’t even nominated for the award, he seems the safe bet to take home the Oscar.
Like Best Director, the Best Actor race has remained fairly unchanged week to week. Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln) remains the leader. He has remained the favorite, with odds of winning to be in the low to mid 90s for weeks. We have him at 57.6%, with Bradley Cooper and Hugh Jackman in a tight race for second, at 17.1% and 18.6%, respectively.
The Best Actress race has moved some, but it has been a race for second place rather than first. Jennifer Lawrence continues to lead. Betting markets have softened on her some over the last few weeks, but she has stayed strong at or around 60% (59.6% today). We have her at 64%. Jessica Chastain and Emmanuelle Riva have flipped second and third place in the last week. Chastain is now at 15.5% in the betting markets; we have her at 12.0%. Riva, coming off a win at BAFTA, is at 26.0% in the betting markets, having jumped 10% from the victory at Chastain’s expense. We have her at 17.4% – still a distant third to Lawrence.
Outside of Best Picture, the Best Supporting Actor category has been one of the most exciting and dynamic. Christoph Waltz is currently our leader, at 44.9%. Tommy Lee Jones is a close second at 34.5%. In the betting markets, Jones remains in the lead, at 37.5% this morning. But he has been consistently falling, down from the mid to low 50s over the last couple of weeks. Waltz, on the other hand, continues to gain the betting markets, now at 35%, up from 15% a few weeks ago. This is a great race to watch.
Our final race is the Best Supporting Actress. Anne Hathaway has never faced any real threats in the model. We have her at 97.8%. Betting markets are nearly in parody at 96.9%; she’s been in 90s for weeks, steadily picking up ground.
T-minus 6 days and counting! We’ll keep you updated every day with new information and model changes. Stay tuned…and get ready for that Oscar viewing party.